Forex forecasts and market outlooks

NZD is gaining ground against USD during today's morning trading session, trying to consolidate above 0.6700.

The pair is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level (C) develops, within which the first wave 1 of (C) formed. Now, an upward correction has started to develop as the second wave 2 of (C), within which the wave a of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3388–1.3629. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2993.

The pair may fall.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the wave 2, within which the wave c of 2 forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of c is developing, within which the wave ii of (v) has ended, and the wave iii of (v) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 104.19–103.30. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 106.56.

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK 3M report, showing the ratio of the proportion of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens, will be published. This release is a leading indicator for the British economy. If the rate rises, this indicates a slowdown in the recovery of the country's labor market, negatively affecting the state of the economy; the decline in the indicator, on the contrary, is a positive factor for the economy and the exchange rate of the national currency. According to preliminary data, the indicator will remain unchanged at 3.9%.

At 04:00 (GMT+2), the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release data on changes in the level of retail sales for August. The indicator assesses the total amount of funds received as a result of the sale of consumer goods to end consumers and reflects the level of economic well-being. The indicator is expected to decrease by 1.4% YoY, which may negatively affect the exchange rate of the national currency.

At 04:00 (GMT+2), data on changes in the level of industrial production will be published in China. This indicator is published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and reflects the change in the volume of production of factories, factories, and other production facilities in the country. An increase in production volumes could trigger acceleration in inflation, which could force the People's Bank of China to take measures aimed at tightening monetary and fiscal policies. A high reading is considered positive for the Chinese currency, while a low reading is considered negative.